Energy Market Drivers: Oil to trade in a higher trading range. Expect new sanctions on Russian gas over the summer

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Last week, we argued that there were upside risks for oil in Q2 and Q3 and that Brent was about to break out of the recent tight USD 81-84 range and “move to a new higher trading range” of USD 83-88.

It seems the break happened already this week with Brent above USD85.

Hence, we now see Brent in a new USD 83-88 range.

In our view, four factors pushed oil prices higher this week

  1. Demand optimism from the IEA oil market report
  2. Lower US crude oil inventories:
  3. Geopolitics: (Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries)
  4. Speculative activity:

    Read more in the pdf that also includes a section on the gas market.

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    Arne Lohmann Rasmussen
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